World's Strongest Man 2022: My event-by-event predictions

 Below are my event-by-event predictions for the WSM 2022 Final. I've made the predictions based on (a) past performance (heavily relying on Strongman Archives), (b) how athletes have done in the heats, (c) training footage, and (d) a lot of guessing. As anyone who follows the sports knows, you very rarely get through a contest with no surprises. People improve, people get injured, people drop implements etc... Still, it's fun to make predictions and gives us something to do while we wait until the excitement of staring at a spreadsheet!

I'm sure I've gotten a few things wrong and missed some things that might influence results, so would be very happy to hear any thoughts on my predictions. My guesses probably aren't accurate, but I've tried not to let personal biases influence my decisions too much. To be honest, like most people I'm a fan of pretty much everyone competing. The person I most want to win is probably Novikov, but I haven't predicted that in my final standings.

Event 1: Giant's medley

Athletes will have to load two 120kg boxes then carry a 455kg yoke for ten metres. This sort of event is pretty common these days, but the boxes are a fairly uncommon implement so we might see a few surprises depending on how different competitors manage the implements. 

• 1st Place: Oleksii Novikov - Novikov did well at a similar event in the 2020 WSM final, did really well in the loading during the heats, and is definitely one of the fastest, well-rounded athletes here. There are loads of great guys in this line-up, but I think Oleksii can take this event (and may need to if he wants a chance at winning the overall competition). 
• 2nd Place: Martins Licis - Martins is arguably even more well-rounded than Novikov and not too much slower. He's done solidly on events like this in the past and did well in both moving events during the heats, so I've put him in second place. 
• 3rd Place: Mitchell Hooper - Hooper is outstanding at yoke and did really well in the loading event during the heats. I think he does very well here. 
• 4th Place: Tom Stoltman - Tom is great at this type of event and could easily win it, so I may be low-balling my prediction here. Either way, I don't see him finishing too much lower than this, and think he puts in a solid performance. 
• 5th Place: Luke Stoltman - While probably not quite as quick as his brother, Luke should also perform well here. 
• 6th Place: Brian Shaw - I'll say this for a few events, but in the past Brian could have won this event. He still did well in the loading medley during the heats and should manage the yoke, but I just don't think his speed is what it used to be. 
• 7th Place: Trey Mitchell - Though he has a bit of a reputation as a static monster, Trey is pretty good at the yoke and will likely manage with the loading. Still, I don't see him finishing at the top end of this event. 
• 8th Place: Gabriel Rheaume - Rheaume's loading race in the group stages wasn't great, but his car walk was pretty quick. I think he might be able to pick up a few points here, but is unlikely to finish towards the top. 
• 9th Place: Maxime Boudreault - It's all about the yoke for Maxime. He does well on many moving events, but has struggled quite a bit with yokes in the past, including during a medley at last year's Canada's Strongest Man where he placed 15th of 17 athletes. 
• 10th Place: Eythor Ingolffson Melsted: Eythor's loading race was okay compared to some of the other guys at the lower end of this prediction, but this sort of event hasn't been strong for him. While I don't think he's destined for last in this event, I'd be surprised if he does too much better than 7th or 8th. 

Event 2: Deadlift for reps 

This is a car deadlift, but with a bar in front of the athletes rather than handles to each side. Looking at performances in previous deadlift events, especially deadlift for reps, we can make a few comparisons. A lot of athletes are at a similar level in the deadlift - there's no one like Thor or Eddie (with the possible exception of Hooper...), but only a couple who we could consider 'weak' deadlifters. This could be a really close event and we can expect a couple of ties, but see my predictions below.

• 1st Place: Mitchell Hooper - Hooper lived up to the hype during the heats. While we don't have information from previous top level contests, his huge max deadlift of 475kg and blistering time in the deadlift ladder should make him tough to beat.
• =2nd Place: Oleksii Novikov - Oleksii put up the second fastest time on the deadlift ladder in the heats, and generally performs very well when deadlifting for reps.
• =2nd Place: Martins Licis - Martins hasn't deadlifted for reps in competition for a while, but he's performed well at this event. In deadlift for reps, since WSM 2018 he's only performed worse than JF Caron, Rauno Heinla, Hafthor Bjornsson and Brian Shaw - all 1000lbs+ pullers at the time of these competitions. He's also looked good in training - I've put him in equal second.
• 4th Place: Trey Mitchell - Trey is an amazing deadlifter who took the joint win in this event last year, and could've won outright had he not run out of time. I've put him below the guys above because he did one fewer rep than Novikov at the Arnold UK last year, and may have the disadvantage of going before them if he performs as I expect in the medley. 
• =5th Place: Tom Stoltman - Tom is a great deadlifter, but it's not his strongest event in the final. Equalling Adam Bishop in the deadlift at Britain's Strongest Man 2022 is a huge achievement, but the deadlift was one of his weaker event in last year's final and he's finished behind guys like Oleksii in Giants Live shows, so I've put him mid pack here. 
• =5th Place: Brian Shaw - If you took Brian from a few years ago he'd probably beat everyone here with the possible exception of Hooper. I think he can still put in a decent performance, but don't have him challenging the current top guys. 
• 7th Place: Luke Stoltman - 400+kg deadlifts can be considered a weak point now, ask Mateusz. Luke has finished mid-pack in many Giants Live shows on deadlift for reps so I see him placing in the mid to lower end of the ten competitors here.
• =8th Place: Gabriel Rheaume - Gabriel hasn't been too impressive in this event to date, but he's a younger athlete who has been improving quickly. Before the heats I would've put him in last place, but he did do four reps in the ladder unlike Maxime and Eythor, so I've put them all in equal 8th place (mainly so I don't have to make a decision!). 
• =8th Place: Maxime Boudreault - Maxime only managed three bars in the ladder, and while he won this event at the Magnus ver Magnusson Classic he's also recently zeroed this event at bigger shows like the Shaw Classic and Giants Live World Open. Important to remember that he finished tenth in this event last year but managed to get on the podium! 
• =8th Place: Eythor Ingolffson Melsted - The deadlift isn't a huge strength for Eythor. He only managed three bars in the ladder, and placed lower than Maxime on this event in the MVM classic last year. However, he did a lot better in Maxime in this event at last year's WSM and also beat Luke.

Event 3: Flintstone lift 

We haven't seen the flintstone lift at World's Strongest Man since the group stages of 1997. As such, it's difficult to make predictions based on past performances given none of the athletes have actually done this lift in competition. The event essentially involves unracking a bar and putting it overhead. Based on training and past performances, most athletes can move the most weight by using a behind-the-neck jerk or push press, but others (for example Mitchell Hooper) seem to favour a regular push press. While shoulder power is a big factor, you can't just expect the biggest log pressers to win this event. 

Given the above, I've made some very tentative predictions based on training footage and a few other factors. I'm also making these predictions prior to knowing the weight jumps, which will be really important. I wouldn't be surprised if I'm completely off with this one. 

• =1st Place: Tom Stoltman - It seems weird to predict Tom taking joint first for this event, but in footage on Youtube he hit what appears to be 230kg in training. Guys like Pavlo or Bish might have beaten this but didn't make the final, and since we haven't seen anything this high from anyone else I have to put Tom at the top. 
  
• =1st Place: Oleksii Novikov - This one really is a guess, but Novikov is a good log presser and the best dumbbell presser in the world right now (by a fair margin until Kieliszkowski is properly back in action). Given how explosive he is, and how good he is at maximising his technique in certain lifts, I could see him doing really well here. 
• =3rd Place: Martins Licis - Martins has been practising the split jerk and has put up 205kg in training. It's a lot harder to estimate the relative effort of movements like jerks when compared to presses, but I think Martins has a bit more in him. Since he seems to be one of the best at peaking his big lifts for competition, I have him doing well here. 
• =3rd Place: Mitchell Hooper - Hooper has done a 215kg push press in training that looked solid but tough. He might be one of the few guys to press from the front rack position, but could still pick up some decent points here. 
• =3rd Place: Luke Stoltman - Seems weird for Luke to be below Tom in an overhead event, but going off the very little footage we have, it seems like Tom might actually be stronger when behind-the-neck push pressing. Still, if Tom's lift was 230kg then Luke has lifted 210kg in training, which should mean he does decently. 
• =6th Place: Trey Mitchell - Trey is the second best log presser in this group, but the only training I've seen from him on this event is an easy 410lb/186kg press. I wouldn't be shocked if he does much better than I expect here, but I have him just below the group above. 
• =6th Place: Maxime Boudreault - Maxime posted a pretty comfortable 205kg in training, again I see him just below the group above but anything could happen.
• =6th Place: Brian Shaw - Like Maxime, Brian has hit 205kg in training for this event. It looked a lot tougher than Maxime's but was also further out from the competition, so I've put him in the same place. 
• 9th Place: Eythor Ingolfsson Melsted - Eythor is a good log presser and decent at the dumbbell, but I couldn't find any training footage for this event. Given he seems to be better at overhead than Gabriel I've put him in ninth place, but he may well surprise me. 
• 10th Place: Gabriel Rheaume - Don't have much to go off here. Gabriel is decent overhead, but not at the level of the guys above him. I've put him in last place, but again, very little to base this on and he may actually do really well! 

Event 4: Bus pull

A WSM classic that we don't seem to see as often these days. Strongman Archives has data on this event for some people, but some of this isn't recent so we have to make some guesses here. 

• 1st Place: Martins Licis - Martins' performance in this event has been mixed to date, with one or two stand-out performances. Where he's finished lower, a lot of the time he's competed against guys like Kieliszkowski and Thor, and we probably don't have any vehicle pullers at that level this year. Given how well-rounded he is, I see a good placing here.
• 2nd Place: Tom Stoltman - Tom has only done this event a few times and has never done particularly well, but he's also come very far since 2019. This is a bit of a gamble, but I think his bodyweight and general strength in moving events may be enough to put him near the top at this point.
• 3rd Place: Brian Shaw - At his peak, Brian was one of the best at this event. In the past few years he hasn't been able to bank on winning this event, but he's still put in a few decent performances. Given his performance in the heats wasn't the best, I've put him below Tom and Martins. 
• 4th Place: Maxime Boudreault - Maxime has done well at vehicle pulls in the past, generally placing in the top three and only losing to really impressive athletes. 
• 5th Place: Luke Stoltman - Luke has done alright in vehicle pulls in the past. Like Martins, many of the people who've beaten him aren't in this final, and at WUS in 2019 he managed to beat Novikov and Tom. Since he's been so on-form in the heats, I could see a decent performance here.
• 6th Place: Oleksii Novikov - Being lighter may work against Novikov here. His performances in vehicle pulls at international shows haven't been amazing, but he we know that he's progressed a lot in the last three years. 
• 7th Place: Mitchell Hooper - Hooper has admitted that he doesn't have much experience in this event. He doesn't have the height or bodyweight that seems to help some people in this event, but others benefit from explosive power and speed, which Hooper certainly doesn't lack. I've put him in seventh, but like most events this is tough to predict for Hooper. 
• 8th Place: Trey Mitchell - Trey has had mixed results in previous vehicle pulls. He beat Licis in a tank pull in 2018, but didn't do very well in a couple of contests in 2019. I think he finishes towards the lower end. 
• 9th Place: Eythor Ingolfsson Melsted - Eythor won this event at last year's Iceland's Strongest Man but hasn't really tested his ability against the best in the world. 
• 10th Place: Gabriel Rheaume - He may have made progress since then, but a middle-of-the-pack finish in this event at Canada's Strongest Man makes it hard to predict Gabriel above any others.

Event 5: Power stairs 

Power stairs were a staple event at many contests in the 2000s to the early 2010s, but we hadn't seen them very often until this year. They recently featured at Europe's Strongest Man 2022 which gives us some useful information, but otherwise we mostly need to make guesses based on performances that were quite a while ago, and various attributes of different athletes. 

• 1st Place: Martins Licis - Martins has only done power stairs twice, but put up a decent performance in 2018, placing second behind JF Caron and beating guys like Shaw and Maxime. He's explosive, a strong deadlifter and well-rounded, so I think he could do really well here.
• 2nd Place: Tom Stoltman - We didn't see Tom at Europe's Strongest Man, but his build and other strengths seem to suggest he can do well here. If I had to guess, he finishes towards the top of the pack. 
• 3rd Place: Mitchell Hooper - Yet another event which Hooper hasn't done, but I think he picks up quite a few points given his speed and back strength. 
• 4th Place: Oleksii Novikov - Novikov placed just behind Luke on the stairs at Europe's Strongest Man this year, but I think given he's had a bit more time to train he might be able to make up for that fraction of a second. Being shorter isn't an advantage here, but we've seen guys like Pudzianowski dominate power stairs without being too tall. 
• 5th Place: Luke Stoltman - Luke did decently on this event at Europe's Strongest Man, narrowly beating Oleksii. As mentioned, I think Oleksii could edge the win this time, but still see Luke doing alright. 
• 6th Place: Maxime Boudreault - This event was at the 2017 and 2018 Festival des Hommes Fort Warwick, where Maxime picked up fourth and sixth place against decent line-ups. He's made plenty of gains since then, so I see a solid performance here. 
• 7th Place: Brian Shaw - Brian placed fourth in this event at the 2012 WSM final and third in the 2013 final. Most recently, he took fifth at a contest in 2018 being beaten by Licis and Caron, but beating Maxime and Mateusz. I can see him doing decently here, but wouldn't expect him to challenge for the top places. 
• 8th Place: Trey Mitchell - This is a guess, as I can't find any record of Trey doing power stairs at a high level. He's a strong deadlifter, but this isn't the type of event that he generally does best at and his build is different to most of the power stair greats. I've put him at the lower end, but am pretty unsure about it. 
• 9th Place: Gabriel Rheaume - Gabriel did this event at last year's Canada's Strongest Man, where placed two spots below Maxime. That's not much to go off, but since I've got Maxime in the middle of the pack I've put Rheaume towards the bottom. 
• 10th Place: Eythor Ingolfsson Melsted - This was Eythor's worst event at Europe's Strongest Man, where he took tenth place only ahead of Gav Bilton (Rauno Heinla had withdrawn). This line-up is stronger than that, so I think Eythor will struggle here. 

Event 6: Atlas stones 

You can't really avoid atlas stones so we have a pretty good idea of how good different athletes are at this event, but there could be some really close and exciting battles for the win and/or podium. This is a really good line-up of stone lifters, and many of the guys have traded wins/losses, so it was pretty hard to predict.

• 1st Place: Tom Stoltman - This prediction doesn't need much explaining, but I do think we could see a close battle with Martins.
• 2nd Place: Martins Licis - Martins beat Tom in the stones at the Rogue Invitational and before that at the 2019 WSM final. I think Tom may be a bit faster on this set of stones now, but it should be pretty close. 
• 3rd Place: Maxime Boudreault - Maxime is a consistently great stone lifter, winning the event at the Giants Live World Tour Finals and taking second only to Tom at last year's WSM final. 
• 4th Place: Trey Mitchell - Trey is a great stone lifter, but perhaps a bit better suited to the stone-off than this. I have him placing well, but below Maxime (who beat Trey on stones at the 2021 WSM final, but finished below him in the Shaw Classic). 
• 5th Place: Brian Shaw - He was once the best in the world, and (while no longer at that level) Brian still performs well on atlas stones. I could see him higher or lower than this, but have placed him around the middle of this strong group of stone lifters. 
• 6th Place: Oleksii Novikov - Novikov has put in solid performances in the stones during giants live events. I don't see him 
• 7th Place: Mitchell Hooper - Another big question mark for Hooper. He looks good in training, and we've yet to see a weakness from him. I've put him on the mid to lower end of the pack but who knows how he'll perform on the day. 
• 8th Place: Luke Stoltman - Luke is decent at stones - I think he'll get comfortably beaten by the guys at the top of this list but could fight it out with others in the middle of the pack. Novikov has tended to perform better than Luke, but they had a photo finish at Europe's Strongest Man earlier in the year. 
• 9th Place: Eythor Ingolfsson Melsted - Eythor took fifth in the stones at Europe's, which is good but probably not enough to challenge the top guys at WSM. Last year he finished ninth in this event, and I see a similar thing happening this time around. 
• 10th Place: Gabriel Rheaume - Gabriel beat everyone except Maxime at stones in Canada's Strongest Man last year, but didn't do too well at the Shaw Classic. He did beat Kevin Faires in the stone-off and seems to be improving rapidly though, so this tenth place prediction might be harsh.

Final standings

As mentioned, this is at best an educated guess, and you could shuffle loads of these places around. Still, I scored the event based on these results in a spreadsheet. There were a couple of ties, and instead of using an event as a tiebreaker I just decided to use my own gut feeling to put one above the other. 

1. Martins Licis (53.5 points)
2. Tom Stoltman (50 points)
3. Oleksii Novikov (45 points)
4. Mitchell Hooper (41 points)
5. Brian Shaw (32.5 points)
6. Luke Stoltman (32 points)
7. Maxime Boudreault (28 points)
8. Trey Mitchell (28 points)
9. Gabriel Rheaume (10 points) 
10. Eythor Ingolfsson Melsted (10 points) 

This lines up somewhat closely to what I would have guessed before diving into the events, though I expect closer battles than the points suggest. I could be way off though - we've already had loads of surprises during the heats and anything can happen in the final. Luckily, we won't have to wait too long to find out. One of the best things about strongman is that you usually can't predict what happens just by looking at a few numbers!